The box office story around The Mandalorian & Grogu just got a little more interesting. After some earlier softer-looking chatter around the film’s commercial prospects, Boxoffice Pro’s latest long-range forecast now says the movie could open in the $90 million to $100 million range domestically when it hits theaters on May 22, 2026. That would be a meaningful shift in tone around the film’s launch outlook, even if the upper end still would not put it near the biggest modern Star Wars openings. That is the key thing here: this is better, but it is not suddenly a “Star Wars is back to automatic $150M openings” story. Better than the gloomier narrative According to Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast, a $100 million opening would still rank as the lowest Star Wars debut since Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4 million in 2018. The same report notes that The…
Box Office
The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Early Box Office Tracking Looks Soft
The first real box office tracking for The Mandalorian and Grogu is here, and it is not exactly the kind of number Lucasfilm probably wanted people talking about a month before release. According to early forecasting, the film is currently looking at roughly $71 million to $85 million domestic for its three-day opening weekend. That is not a disaster on its own. But it is the comparison point that makes this more interesting: Solo: A Star Wars Story opened to $84.4 million domestically in 2018, which means The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently tracking in a range that could land below it, roughly match it, or just barely edge past it depending on where it comes in. Why this number matters more than usual This is not just another Star Wars movie opening. The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first Star Wars theatrical release since 2019, and Lucasfilm has clearly…