The box office story around The Mandalorian & Grogu just got a little more interesting.
After some earlier softer-looking chatter around the film’s commercial prospects, Boxoffice Pro’s latest long-range forecast now says the movie could open in the $90 million to $100 million range domestically when it hits theaters on May 22, 2026. That would be a meaningful shift in tone around the film’s launch outlook, even if the upper end still would not put it near the biggest modern Star Wars openings.
That is the key thing here: this is better, but it is not suddenly a “Star Wars is back to automatic $150M openings” story.
Better than the gloomier narrative
According to Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast, a $100 million opening would still rank as the lowest Star Wars debut since Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4 million in 2018. The same report notes that The Mandalorian & Grogu is unlikely to match the $155 million launch of Rogue One.
So this is not exactly Lucasfilm being handed a victory parade in advance.
But it is a lot healthier than the more doom-heavy takes that started floating around when the first early box office talk surfaced.
Why the forecast may be improving
The timing is not hard to understand.
Lucasfilm has been pushing the movie harder lately, with fresh footage, a stronger marketing beat, and a clearer effort to frame the film as a proper theatrical event rather than just a bigger episode of TV. Recent coverage from GamesRadar’s report on the first released clip and People’s film overview also reinforces that Lucasfilm is now firmly in full promo mode ahead of release.
That does not guarantee the movie overperforms, of course. Long-range forecasts are still forecasts.
But it does suggest the early perception around the movie may be stabilizing a bit.
The real test is still coming
The most important point is that The Mandalorian & Grogu is still carrying an unusual burden for Star Wars.
It is the franchise’s first theatrical movie since The Rise of Skywalker, and it is also the first real test of whether Disney+ Star Wars can convert cleanly into a major box office event. A $90 million to $100 million opening would not be a disaster. It would be respectable. But for a franchise with Star Wars in the title, it would also still invite a lot of conversation about where the ceiling really is now. That last part is an inference, but it is a pretty grounded one given the historical comparisons Boxoffice Pro itself raises.
So yes, the mood around The Mandalorian & Grogu looks a little better today.
The problem for Lucasfilm is that “a little better” and “massive Star Wars event” are not always the same thing.
